Libyan oil output nearing ceiling, oil firm study says
However hard it tries, the National Oil Corporation is unlikely to push Libyan oil production beyond its year-end target of 1.25 million bpd, says a study from leading international oil firm Wood Mackenzie.
Libyan output peaked at 1.73 million bpd in 2008, a figure which the analysts believe will not be reached again until “well into the next decade”.
Acknowledging the steep increase from August 2016’s 300,000 bpd to this July’s breaking of the million barrel mark, (output is currently some 850,00 bpd), Wood Mackenzie cautions that NOC faces a range of tough challenges. It says export capacity is constrained by the damage to the Sidra and Ras Lanuf terminals. The state oil company is starved of funding and also faces the flaring up of violence and armed groups hindering output.
Wood Mackenzie further notes the reluctance of some international oil companies to re-engage with Libya and commit fresh capital and expertise. But attitudes vary.
“North American players continue to view Libya with trepidation” says the Wood Mackenzie study, “and some may seek to mitigate their exposure by divesting. But for many European companies, the risks are manageable and a gradual re-entry into familiar projects without committing capital makes sense”.
