Gabriel Kajero: Nigeria has flown the nest but is not laying any eggs soon...
In lieu of the financial brownie point gained over South Africa, Nigeria has flown the nest but is not laying any eggs soon for the majority of its population.
2015 has a political outlook, to be driven mostly not by the usual pseudo mantra of the West, but by guts and perseverance of 160 million people.
Fast forwarding, the political shove and push will cloud the first half of the year while the economy cheer leads from a distance.
Yes, big businesses will continue to contractually talk big dollars, but the fashionable tradition of “pledge and not commit” will continue to constrain development.
Local financial services will still not have a life line offering to the business sector, with its very stiff finger in the pie of 26% loans rates and project financing offering.
Winners? China. With the precision that has surpassed the Catholic Church methods of inroad and conversion. China has a game and everyone can look on and why not?
The Chinese got Nigeria right, focusing on a dollar a day spend product line, while staying close to the kitchen and rewriting the menu.
Land grabbers are long term winners but with nothing to show as results for 2015 but to quietly influence favourable policy restructuring. An ear to the ground may reveal more.
Since the energy sector is in the hands of the powerful few, power will remain closed and access is on invitation only. Access to “fresh blooders” (or new kids on the block) alias “NKOTK” will be marginal.
The economy is driven by power needs, service and SME commerce. This remains.
Again, commodities, service and a dollar a day business will sell now and in 2015.
General outlook for Nigeria for the “fresh blooders” or (NKOTK) is deep patience and a strong will to survive. Nevertheless, the barometer says it is the right patch to be in the region.
This contribution is part of the Africa CEO Forum on the NIgerian Economy. Click here to visit the forum