Africa and the global future

By Isaac Twumasi Quantus in Accra.

Exploring the future of the world is a tempting challenge. Will the 21st century really be the African century? Who will be the world powers in 2050? How will global environmental change evolve?

Will there be a clash of civilizations? The many books and reports written to discuss the possible answers to these and similar questions generally ignore Africa. Where they do include Africa, the discussion is often based on broad assumptions or stereotypes.

However, Africa does receive topical attention from futurologists. Issue specific studies project, for example, the growth of mobile phone and internet coverage, the spread of diseases or ongoing population growth.

Also, global institutions, such as the UN and related agencies, the World Bank, the IMF or the International Energy Agency, do include Africa in their outlooks. These reports, based on statistical estimates, are the most widely used sources when exploring Africa’s future.

More recently, Africa’s positive economic performance has received broader attention, much of it triggered by reports highlighting the business opportunities on the continent.

A comprehensive study of Africa’s future would combine and enrich these fragmented examples of foresight with less measured trends and changes. It would explore possible extreme events and surprises. It would acknowledge the significant differences between countries and cultures on the continent.

It would embed these in the context of a changing world. Such a study has yet to be executed.

There are good reasons to include Africa when trying to understand global futures:

Population and economics: The demographic and economic developments on the continent will increase the global impact of the continent.

Climate change: Africa is an epicentre of climate change impacts. The IPCC (20007) expects effects on migration patterns, human health and economic development. These are likely to have knock on effects on other world regions.

Food: Global food yields are coming under pressure. Causes include soil erosion, extreme weather and a competition for arable land between food and non-food agricultural products, such as biofuels and cotton. At the same time, the number of people to be fed grows and average calorie intake is on the rise.

Africa’s vast tracts of arable land, much of it still unfarmed, have the potential to feed billions. However, this valuable resource might also cause intercontinental conflict, since cash crops are mostly sold on the world market and Asian governments especially are securing large areas of African land to feed their populations in the coming decades.

Energy: There is a global need to reduce fossil fuel dependency while ensuring energy supplies. Africa’s potential to harvest renewable energy from solar, wind, water and biomass sources is large enough for local supply and significant exports.

 

This article was originally posted on Africa Sustainable Energy & Environment Platform

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